The Establishment and Verification of a Nomogram Model for Predicting the Overall Survival of Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma: An Analysis Based on the SEER Database
Bibliographic record
Abstract
(1) Background: This study aimed to establish a nomogram model for predicting the overall survival (OS) of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) patients based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. (2) Methods: Patients with MTC in the SEER database from 2004 to 2015 were included and divided into a modeling group and an internal validation group. We also selected MTC patients from our center from 2007 to 2019 to establish an external validation group. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to screen for significant independent variables and to establish a nomogram model. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curves were plotted to evaluate the influence of the predictors. The C-indexes, areas under the curves (AUCs), and calibration curves were plotted to validate the predictive effect of the model. (3) Results: A total of 1981 MTC patients from the SEER database and 85 MTC patients from our center were included. The univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that age, tumor size, N stage, and M stage were significant factors, and a nomogram model was established. The C-index of the modeling group was 0.792, and the AUCs were 0.811, 0.825, and 0.824. The C-index of the internal validation group was 0.793, and the AUCs were 0.847, 0.846, and 0.796. The C-index of the external validation group was 0.871, and the AUCs were 0.911 and 0.827. The calibration curves indicated that the prediction ability was reliable. (4) Conclusions: A nomogram model based on age, tumor size, N stage, and M stage was able to predict the OS of MTC patients.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.014 | 0.022 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".