Monte Carlo simulation with confusion matrix paradigm – A sample of internal consistency indices
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Monte Carlo simulation is a common method of providing empirical evidence to verify statistics used in psychological studies. A representative set of conditions should be included in simulation studies. However, several recently published Monte Carlo simulation studies have not included the conditions of the null distribution of the statistic in their evaluations or comparisons of statistics and, therefore, have drawn incorrect conclusions. This present study proposes a design based on a common statistic evaluation procedure in psychology and machine learning, using a confusion matrix with four cells: true positive, true negative, false negative modified, and false positive modified. To illustrate this design, we employ an influential Monte Carlo simulation study by Trizano-Hermosilla and Alvarado (2016), which concluded that the Omega-indexed internal consistency should be preferred over other alternatives. Our results show that Omega can report an acceptable level of internal consistency (i.e., > 0.7) in a population with no relationship between every two items in some conditions, providing novel empirical evidence for comparing internal consistency indices.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.035 | 0.160 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".