Ambient air pollution and rate of spontaneous abortion
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Spontaneous abortion (SAB), defined as a pregnancy loss before 20 weeks of gestation , affects up to 30% of conceptions, yet few modifiable risk factors have been identified. We estimated the effect of ambient air pollution exposure on SAB incidence in Pregnancy Study Online (PRESTO), a preconception cohort study of North American couples who were trying to conceive. Participants completed questionnaires at baseline, every 8 weeks during preconception follow-up, and in early and late pregnancy . We analyzed data on 4643 United States (U.S.) participants and 851 Canadian participants who enrolled during 2013–2019 and conceived during 12 months of follow-up. We used country-specific national spatiotemporal models to estimate concentrations of particulate matter <2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), and ozone (O 3 ) during the preconception and prenatal periods at each participant's residential address. On follow-up and pregnancy questionnaires, participants reported information on pregnancy status, including SAB incidence and timing. We fit Cox proportional hazards regression models with gestational weeks as the time scale to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association of time-varying prenatal concentrations of PM 2.5 , NO 2 , and O 3 with rate of SAB, adjusting for individual- and neighborhood-level factors. Nineteen percent of pregnancies ended in SAB. Greater PM 2.5 concentrations were associated with a higher incidence of SAB in Canada, but not in the U.S. (HRs for a 5 μg/m 3 increase = 1.29, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.68 and 0.94, 95% CI: 0.83, 1.08, respectively). NO 2 and O 3 concentrations were not appreciably associated with SAB incidence. Results did not vary substantially by gestational weeks or season at risk. In summary, we found little evidence for an effect of residential ambient PM 2.5 , NO 2 , and O 3 concentrations on SAB incidence in the U.S., but a moderate positive association of PM 2.5 with SAB incidence in Canada. • We found a positive association of ambient PM 2.5 concentrations with spontaneous abortion in Canada, but not the USA. • NO 2 and O 3 concentrations were not appreciably associated with rate of SAB. • Results were relatively consistent across season and weeks of gestation. • Protection of pregnant individuals from air pollutionis an important measure to safeguard maternal and fetal health.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".