NYUS.2: an automated machine learning prediction model for the large-scale real-time simulation of grapevine freezing tolerance in North America
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Accurate and real-time monitoring of grapevine freezing tolerance is crucial for the sustainability of the grape industry in cool climate viticultural regions. However, on-site data are limited due to the complexity of measurement. Current prediction models underperform under diverse climate conditions, which limits the large-scale deployment of these methods. We combined grapevine freezing tolerance data from multiple regions in North America and generated a predictive model based on hourly temperature-derived features and cultivar features using AutoGluon, an automated machine learning engine. Feature importance was quantified by AutoGluon and SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) value. The final model was evaluated and compared with previous models for its performance under different climate conditions. The final model achieved an overall 1.36°C root-mean-square error during model testing and outperformed two previous models using three test cultivars at all testing regions. Two feature importance quantification methods identified five shared essential features. Detailed analysis of the features indicates that the model has adequately extracted some biological mechanisms during training. The final model, named NYUS.2, was deployed along with two previous models as an R shiny-based application in the 2022-23 dormancy season, enabling large-scale and real-time simulation of grapevine freezing tolerance in North America for the first time.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it