Determination of duration, threshold and spatiotemporal distribution of extreme continuous precipitation in nine major river basins in China
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
China is one of the countries most severely affected by extreme precipitation, and it is urgent to carry out relevant research on the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme precipitation in China. Compared with single-day precipitation events, heavy precipitation events often last for multiple days and have greater potential disaster impacts, such as floods and mudslides. Therefore, in this study, we focus on continuous precipitation (CP) events for analysis. In order to determine the most probable duration of continuous heavy precipitation events, we innovatively adopted two time-frequency variation methods, namely Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT). Then through Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and multifractal DFA (MF-DFA) methods, extreme CP thresholds are extracted according to the fluctuation characteristics of the CP series. The results show that the average duration of heavy precipitation in the Pearl River Basin (PRB) area was the longest (up to 7.7 days), followed by the Continental Basin (CB) area (7.6 days). The Haihe River Basin (HRB) area had the shortest duration of heavy precipitation (5.0 days), followed by the Huaihe River Basin (HURB) area (5.9 days). The extreme CP threshold in the Southeast Basin (SEB) area was the largest (112.17 mm), followed by the PRB area (108.22 mm). The extreme CP threshold in the CB area was the smallest (20.17 mm), followed by the Yellow River Basin (YRB) area (44.31 mm). Through mutation and trend testing to evaluate the changing state of the extreme CP time series, it was found that, with one exception (HRB), the average extreme CP after the mutation in the watershed areas was larger than that before the mutation, and eight watersheds showed an upward trend in extreme CP. This suggests that most watershed areas in China are at risk of extreme CP increases. This study can provide an important reference for the analysis of extreme CP in China.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it