P0719 EPIDEMIOLOGY OF PEDIATRIC IBD IN THE GREATER TORONTO AREA
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Introduction: Longitudinal epidemiologic data concerning pediatric inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), particularly in North America, are sparse. We evaluated the prevalence, incidence, demographic features and phenotypic nature of pediatric IBD occurring in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) over the past three decades. Methods: At the Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto children with suspected IBD are systematically evaluated with colonoscopy, mucosal biopsies and small bowel radiography. Since 1980 data have been prospectively recorded in an ACCESS database. To approximate a population-based study, analysis was restricted to children age <15 years at diagnosis, and with residential postal code within the GTA. (Neither adult gastroenterologists nor general pediatricians independently manage such young patients in the GTA). Data by decade were compared to an earlier cohort (Hamilton and Bruce 1977). Statistics Canada Census data were utilized to estimate incidence and prevalence. Results: Based on January 2000 census data, the prevalence of pediatric IBD in the GTA is 17.2 per 100,000. During the past two decades Crohn’s disease (CD) has predominated over ulcerative colitis (UC) (ratio 13:7). Patient demographic data are summarized in Table 1. The percentage of children in the GTA who are Jewish has been stable at 3.2% to 3.7% during the three decades, whereas the percentage of Northern European Caucasian (NEC) origin has decreased from 74% (1980’s) to 60% (1990’s). 53–59% of Jewish probands have an affected first or second degree relative, in comparison to 18–25% of non-Jewish probands. Conclusion: Children developing IBD reflect the increasing racial heterogeneity of the GTA. IBD has been consistently more common and strikingly familial in Jewish children. Pediatric CD affects males more often than females. The incidence of pediatric onset UC has remained stable over three decades, while that of CD has increased almost 3-fold. In comparison to CD, UC is recognized in children at a younger age; however, the age at recognition of CD has decreased modestly during the recent decade.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".