Major fluvial erosion and a 500‐Mt sediment pulse triggered by lava‐dam failure, Río Coca, Ecuador
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The failure of a 144‐m‐high lava‐dam waterfall on the Río Coca, Ecuador, in February 2020 initiated a catastrophic watershed reset—regressive erosion upstream and a massive sediment pulse downstream—as the river evolves towards a new equilibrium grade. The evolution of this river corridor after a sudden base‐level fall embodies the “complex response” concepts long understood through laboratory experiments, numerical modelling and smaller‐scale field studies, but that have not been observed in the field before on this scale. This paper presents geomorphic and geotechnical data to characterize the evolution of the Río Coca since 2020. In the three years after the lava‐dam failure, the erosion front migrated almost 13 km upstream along the mainstem river and triggered secondary headcuts that began migrating up tributaries. Erosion of the mainstem and tributary valleys generated a sediment pulse estimated to be 277 million m 3 and ~500 million tonnes (Mt) over three years, depositing sediment tens of meters thick over tens of kilometres downstream from the former waterfall. This sediment pulse is one of the largest in modern times, comparable to the annual sediment load of a major continent‐draining river but with orders‐of‐magnitude greater sediment yield. Geomorphic adjustment of the Río Coca represents a highly unusual natural disaster threatening life, property, water quality, the regional economy, major infrastructure and energy security. However, this event also provides a rare opportunity to learn how a large autogenic watershed disturbance and recovery evolve, with important lessons for interpreting the sedimentary record of volcanic landscapes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".