Unusual outbreaks of curly top disease in processing tomato fields in northern California in 2021 and 2022 were caused by a rare strain of beet curly top virus and facilitated by extreme weather events
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In the western United States, curly top disease (CTD) is caused by beet curly top virus (BCTV). In California, CTD causes economic loss to processing tomato production in central and southern areas but, historically, not in the north. Here, we document unusual CTD outbreaks in processing tomato fields in the northern production area in 2021 and 2022, and show that these were caused by the rare spinach curly top strain (BCTV-SpCT). These outbreaks were associated with proximity of fields to foothills and unusually hot, dry, and windy spring weather conditions, possibly by altering migrations of the beet leafhopper (BLH) vector from locations with BCTV-SpCT reservoirs. Support for this hypothesis came from the failure to observe CTD outbreaks and BLH migrations in 2023, when spring weather conditions were cool and wet. Our results show the climate-induced emergence of a rare plant virus strain to cause an economically important disease in a new crop and location.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".