Semimajor-axis Jumps as the Activity Trigger in Centaurs and High-perihelion Jupiter-family Comets
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We present a dynamical study of 39 active Centaurs and 17 high-perihelion (q > 4.5 au) Jupiter-family comets (JFCs) with a focus on investigating recent orbital changes as potential triggers for comet-like activity. We have identified a common feature in the recent dynamical histories of all active Centaurs and JFCs in our sample that is not present in the history of the majority of inactive population members: a sharp decrease in semimajor axis and eccentricity occurring within the past several hundred years prior to observed activity. We define these rapid orbital changes as “a-jumps.” Our results indicate that these orbital reshaping events lead to shorter orbital periods and subsequently greater average per-orbit heating of Centaur nuclei. We suggest that the a-jumps could therefore be a major trigger of cometary activity on Centaurs and JFCs. Our results further imply that analyses of the recent dynamical histories could be used to identify objects that are currently active or may become active soon, where we have identified three such Centaurs with recent a-jumps that should be considered high-priority targets for observational monitoring to search for activity.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".