A bottom-up approach dramatically increases the predictability of body mass from personality traits
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Personality traits consistently relate to and allow predicting body mass index (BMI), but these associations may not be adequately captured with existing inventories' domains or facets. Here, we aimed to test the limits of how accurately BMI can be predicted from and described with personality traits. We used three large datasets (combined N ≈ 100,000) with nearly 700 personality assessment items to (a) empirically identify clusters of personality traits linked to BMI and (b) identify relatively small sets of items that predict BMI as accurately as possible. Factor analysis revealed 14 trait clusters showing well-established personality trait-BMI associations (disorganization, anger) and lesser-known or novel ones (altruism, obedience). Most of items' predictive accuracy (up to r = .24 here but plausibly much higher) was captured by relatively few items. Brief scales that predict BMI have potential clinical applications-for instance, screening for risk of excessive weight gain or related complications.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.017 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".