Large Sample Asymptotic Analysis for Normalized Random Measures with Independent Increments
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Normalized random measures with independent increments (NRMIs) represent a large class of Bayesian nonparametric priors and are widely used in the Bayesian nonparametric framework. In this paper, we provide the posterior consistency analysis for these NRMIs through their characterizing Lévy intensities. Assumptions are introduced on the Lévy intensities to analyse the posterior consistency and are verified with multiple interesting examples. Another focus of the paper is the Bernstein-von Mises theorem for a particular subclass of NRMIs, namely the normalized generalized gamma processes (NGGP). When the Bernstein-von Mises theorem is applied to construct credible sets, in addition to the usual form, there will be an additional bias term on the left endpoint closely related to the number of atoms of the true distribution in the discrete case. We also discuss the effect of the estimators for the model parameters of the NGGP under the Bernstein-von Mises convergence. Finally, to further illustrate the impact of the bias correction term in the construction of credible sets, we present a numerical example to demonstrate numerically how the bias correction affects the coverage of the true value.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it