Intra-provincial benchmark analysis of COVID-19 in Canada
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic posed unheralded challenges to people, business, government at all levels (federal, provincial, regional), and society at large. In addition to the direct consequences of taking care of infected people, which in some countries led to a virtual collapse of the healthcare system, the pandemic strained eldercare, employment, economic growth, and exacerbated mental health and social problems. During the first year of the pandemic, researchers’ and policy makers’ main focus was on ‘flattening the curve,’ and on predictive modeling of infections and deaths. In this paper we present a non-parametric data-driven descriptive analysis based on Data Envelopment Analysis to assess COVID-19 in ten Canadian provinces over the two year period 2020 to 2021. The objective is to derive worst- and best-case intra-provincial benchmarks to assess if and to what extent the situation could have been worse respectively better. To take account for any indirect socio-economic impact our analysis incorporates official monthly unemployment rates and a stringency index reflecting the level of social policy restrictions imposed by the provincial governments. A major contribution of the model framework is that it provides a mechanism for measuring the impact of the two main strategies in curbing the pandemic, namely vaccination and social policy restrictions. As a robustness check, the bench-mark results are compared against bias-corrected efficiency measures.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.013 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it