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Multifractal Aspects of Earth's Climate History

2024· preprint· en· W4390882405 on OpenAlexaff
Frits Agterberg

Bibliographic record

VenuePreprints.org · 2024
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicComplex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Canadian institutionsGeological Survey of Canada
FundersUniversitetet i Oslo
KeywordsMultifractal systemPhanerozoicAtmosphere (unit)ClimatologyAtmospheric sciencesEarth system scienceEnvironmental scienceGeologyEarth sciencePaleontologyMeteorologyGeographyOceanographyFractalCenozoicMathematics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract: Earth’s Phanerozoic history is marked by about 100 major events (“golden spikes”) indicating the beginnings of new stages in the Geologic Time Scale (GTS). Stage boundaries signify major deterministic events that are relatively well-known and can be correlated worldwide, mostly on the basis of appearances or disappearances of fossil species. The latest stage (Anthropocene) is human-made and currently involves rapid (approximately linear) increase in average atmospheric temperature. The main cause of Earth’s past and current temperature increases is addition of CO2 to the atmosphere. There is continuous exchange of greenhouse gases between atmosphere and oceans, which (per unit of volume) contain 50 to 60 times as much CO2 as the atmosphere. Abundance of new very precise worldwide observations is allowing multifractal modeling of weather and climate during the latest Quaternary stages during which some variables like temperature of the atmosphere and frequency of forest fires can be described by using the Pareto-lognormal frequency distribution model with parameters that are subject to continuous (deterministic) changes, similar to those in the earlier Phanerozoic.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.004
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.008
Threshold uncertainty score0.015

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.004
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0020.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0010.002
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.128
GPT teacher head0.281
Teacher spread0.154 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2024
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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