Associations between long-term night shift work and incidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a prospective cohort study of 277,059 UK Biobank participants
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Little is known about the effects of night shifts and their interactions with genetic factors on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). In this study, we aim to investigate relationships between long-term night shift work exposure and COPD risk, and assess modification effects of genetic predisposition. METHODS: A total of 277,059 subjects who were in paid employment or self-employed were included in the UK Biobank. Information on current and lifetime employment was obtained, and a weighted COPD-specific genetic risk score (GRS) was constructed. We used Cox proportional hazard models to investigate associations between night shift work and COPD risk, and their interaction with COPD-specific GRS. RESULTS: The cohort study included 277,059 participants (133,063 men [48.03%]; mean [SD] age, 52.71 [7.08] years). During a median follow-up of 12.87 years, we documented 6558 incidents of COPD. From day work, irregular night shifts to regular night shifts, there was an increased trend in COPD incidence (P for trend < 0.001). Compared with day workers, the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of COPD was 1.28 (1.20, 1.37) for subjects with rarely/sometimes night shifts and 1.49 (1.35, 1.66) for those with permanent night shifts. Besides, the longer durations (especially in subjects with night shifts ≥ 10 years) and increasing monthly frequency of night shifts (in workers with > 8 nights/month) were associated with a higher COPD risk. Additionally, there was an additive interaction between night shifts and genetic susceptibility on the COPD risk. Subjects with permanent night shifts and high genetic risk had the highest risk of COPD (HR: 1.90 [95% CI: 1.63, 2.22]), with day workers with low genetic risk as a reference. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term night shift exposure is associated with a higher risk of COPD. Our findings suggest that decreasing the frequency and duration of night shifts may offer a promising approach to mitigating respiratory disease incidence in night shift workers, particularly in light of individual susceptibility.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".