An integrated precision medicine approach in major depressive disorder: a study protocol to create a new algorithm for the prediction of treatment response
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Major depressive disorder (MDD) is the most common psychiatric disease worldwide with a huge socio-economic impact. Pharmacotherapy represents the most common option among the first-line treatment choice; however, only about one third of patients respond to the first trial and about 30% are classified as treatment-resistant depression (TRD). TRD is associated with specific clinical features and genetic/gene expression signatures. To date, single sets of markers have shown limited power in response prediction. Here we describe the methodology of the PROMPT project that aims at the development of a precision medicine algorithm that would help early detection of non-responder patients, who might be more prone to later develop TRD. To address this, the project will be organized in 2 phases. Phase 1 will involve 300 patients with MDD already recruited, comprising 150 TRD and 150 responders, considered as extremes phenotypes of response. A deep clinical stratification will be performed for all patients; moreover, a genomic, transcriptomic and miRNomic profiling will be conducted. The data generated will be exploited to develop an innovative algorithm integrating clinical, omics and sex-related data, in order to predict treatment response and TRD development. In phase 2, a new naturalistic cohort of 300 MDD patients will be recruited to assess, under real-world conditions, the capability of the algorithm to correctly predict the treatment outcomes. Moreover, in this phase we will investigate shared decision making (SDM) in the context of pharmacogenetic testing and evaluate various needs and perspectives of different stakeholders toward the use of predictive tools for MDD treatment to foster active participation and patients' empowerment. This project represents a proof-of-concept study. The obtained results will provide information about the feasibility and usefulness of the proposed approach, with the perspective of designing future clinical trials in which algorithms could be tested as a predictive tool to drive decision making by clinicians, enabling a better prevention and management of MDD resistance.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.020 | 0.028 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.028 | 0.008 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".