The incredible shrinking puffin: Decreasing size and increasing proportional bill size of Atlantic puffins nesting at Machias Seal Island
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate change imposes physiological constraints on organisms particularly through changing thermoregulatory requirements. Bergmann's and Allen's rules suggest that body size and the size of thermoregulatory structures differ between warm and cold locations, where body size decreases with temperature and thermoregulatory structures increase. However, phenotypic plastic responses to malnutrition during development can result in the same patterns while lacking fitness benefits. The Gulf of Maine (GOM), located at the southern end of the Labrador current, is warming faster than most of the world's oceans, and many of the marine species that occupy these waters exist at the southern edge of their distributions including Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica; hereafter "puffin"). Monitoring of puffins in the GOM, at Machias Seal Island (MSI), has continued annually since 1995. We asked whether changes in adult puffin body size and the proportional size of bill to body have changed with observed rapid ocean warming. We found that the size of fledgling puffins is negatively related to sea surface temperature anomalies (warm conditions = small fledgers), adult puffin size is related to fledgling size (small fledgers = small adults), and adult puffins have decreased in size in recent years in response to malnutrition during development. We found an increase in the proportional size of bill to wing chord, likely in response to some mix of malnutrition during development and increasing air temperatures. Although studies have assessed clinal variation in seabird morphology with temperature, this is the first study addressing changes in seabird morphology in relation to ocean warming. Our results suggest that puffins nesting in the GOM have morphological plasticity that may help them acclimate to ocean warming.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".