Relative Almost Sure Regret Bounds for Certainty Equivalence Control of Markov Jump Systems
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper, we consider learning and control problem in an unknown Markov jump linear system (MJLS) with perfect state observations. We first establish a generic upper bound on regret for any learning based algorithm. We then propose a certainty equivalence-based learning alagrithm and show that this algorithm achieves a regret of <tex xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">$\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T}{\mathrm{l}}\text{og}(T))$</tex> relative to a certain subset of the sample space. As part of our analysis, we revisit the switched least squares system identification algorithm of [1], [2] for autonomous MJLS and generalize it to controlled MJLS, establishing strong consistency and almost sure rates of convergence of this method.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it