The shape of business cycles: A cross‐country analysis of Friedman's plucking theory
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We test the international applicability of Friedman's plucking theory of the business cycle in 18 advanced economies between 1970 and 2019. We find that in countries where labour markets are more flexible (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States), unemployment rates typically return to pre‐recession levels, in line with Friedman's theory. Elsewhere, unemployment rate recoveries are less complete. Output recoveries differ less across countries, but more across episodes: on average, half of the decline in GDP during a recession persists. In contrast, the extent of labour market tightening or output growth during a boom generally does not provide any information about the intensity of the subsequent recession. In terms of sectors, declines in manufacturing are typically fully reversed. In contrast, construction‐driven recessions, which are often associated with bursting property price bubbles, tend to be persistent.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it