Exchange rate misalignment and financial development in Africa
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We examine the effect of misaligned exchange rates on financial development in Africa. Results from quantile regression techniques and the IV Lewbel estimator reveal that exchange rate misalignment significantly hampers financial development on that continent. This result is robust across financial institutions and financial markets. We also show that while the effects of misaligned exchange rates are negative on financial institutions and positive on financial markets in African franc‐zone countries, the effects are consistently negative across all financial sectors in the non‐franc‐zone countries there. When robustness assessment is done using quantile regression, the results show that the negative effect of misalignment on financial development is only feasible from the 75th percentile and higher in Africa in general and for the non‐franc‐zone countries in particular.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it