Identifying yield and growing season precipitation gaps for maize and millet in Cameroon
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Climate change drives huge differences between the actual and projected yield and growing season precipitation. Therefore, this work identifies yield and precipitation gaps for maize and millet at the national and subnational scales as well as policy considerations for agricultural policy experts that can mitigate these gaps. Yield data for the national and subnational scale analyses were obtained for the period 1961–2021 from the FAOSTAT and the Ministry of Agriculture (MINAGRI)/IRAD of Cameroon, respectively. Growing season precipitation data for the national and subnational scales were collected from the World Bank climate change portal and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Various machine learning algorithms were used to bias-adjust the data and to compute the potential yield and growing season precipitation from which the yield and precipitation gaps were computed. The results show a positive correlation between yield and precipitation gaps, with millet depicting the strongest correlation. The average yield gap for maize is 0.55 t/ha, higher than the average yield gap for millet that is 0.28 t/ha. Not all years with yield gaps are correlated with precipitation gaps. The average precipitation gap for maize is 108 mm/year, and it is higher than the 101 mm/year recorded for millet.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".