Development of an image-based Random Forest classifier for prediction of surgery duration of laparoscopic sigmoid resections
Bibliographic record
Abstract
PURPOSE: Sigmoid diverticulitis is a disease with a high socioeconomic burden, accounting for a high number of left-sided colonic resections worldwide. Modern surgical scheduling relies on accurate prediction of operation times to enhance patient care and optimize healthcare resources. This study aims to develop a predictive model for surgery duration in laparoscopic sigmoid resections, based on preoperative CT biometric and demographic patient data. METHODS: This retrospective single-center cohort study included 85 patients who underwent laparoscopic sigmoid resection for diverticular disease. Potentially relevant procedure-specific anatomical parameters recommended by a surgical expert were measured in preoperative CT imaging. After random split into training and test set (75% / 25%) multiclass logistic regression was performed and a Random Forest classifier was trained on CT imaging parameters, patient age, and sex in the training cohort to predict categorized surgery duration. The models were evaluated in the test cohort using established performance metrics including receiver operating characteristics area under the curve (AUROC). RESULTS: The Random Forest model achieved a good average AUROC of 0.78. It allowed a very good prediction of long (AUROC = 0.89; specificity 0.71; sensitivity 1.0) and short (AUROC = 0.81; specificity 0.77; sensitivity 0.56) procedures. It clearly outperformed the multiclass logistic regression model (AUROC: average = 0.33; short = 0.31; long = 0.22). CONCLUSION: A Random Forest classifier trained on demographic and CT imaging biometric patient data could predict procedure duration outliers of laparoscopic sigmoid resections. Pending validation in a multicenter study, this approach could potentially improve procedure scheduling in visceral surgery and be scaled to other procedures.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".