Modeling Ocean Cooling Induced by Tropical Cyclone Wind Pump Using Explainable Machine Learning Framework
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Tropical cyclones (TCs), with an intensive wind pump impact, induce sea surface temperature cooling (SSTC) on the upper ocean. SSTC is a pronounced indicator to reveal TC evolution and oceanic conditions. However, there are few effective methods for accurately approximating the amplitude of the spatial structure of TC-induced SSTC. This study proposes a novel explainable machine learning framework to model and interpret the amplitude of the spatial structure of SSTC over the northwest Pacific (NWP). In particular, 12 predictors related to TC characteristics and pre-storm ocean states are considered as inputs. A composite analysis technique is used to characterize the amplitude of the spatial structure of SSTC across the TC track. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) is utilized to predict the amplitude of SSTC from the 12 predictors. To better interpret the ocean-atmosphere interaction, a SHapely Additive explanations (SHAP) method is further employed to identify the contributions of predictors in determining the amplitude of the TC-induced SSTC, bringing the attribute-oriented explainability to the proposed method. Results showed that the proposed method could accurately predict the amplitude of the spatial structure of SSTC for different TC intensity groups and outperforms a numerical model. The proposed method also serves as an effective tool for reconstructing composite maps of both interannual and seasonal evolutions of SSTC spatial structure. The study offers insight into applying machine learning to model and interpret the responses of oceanic conditions triggered by extreme weather conditions (e.g., TCs).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".