Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Move Forward Party's victory in Thailand's 14 May 2566 (2023) election surprised most observers, defying widespread predictions of a Pheu Thai win. Departing from traditional vote-mobilization strategies, the Move Forward's campaign focused largely on social media and broad calls for political reform while eschewing the vote-canvassing networks and economic policy promises that had delivered victory after victory for the Pheu Thai. Does the Move Forward's win indicate changes in Thai voting behaviour? Relying on data from an original survey collected the week before and the week after the election, as well as observations from fieldwork, we identify two political cleavages that were influential in shaping vote choice: age and ideology. Younger voters and those who embrace more liberal values were significantly more likely to support the Move Forward. Nevertheless, we caution that this election may be unique, and that these political cleavages may not necessarily drive voter behaviour in future elections.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".