Determining ice-jam stage frequency distributions of an ungauged river reach using dendrogeomorphological data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Ice-jam floods are a common, but dangerous natural phenomena occurring in many northern rivers. These events are even more dangerous when only limited gauged river data is available to be used to predict the severity of events in ice-jam prone areas, especially when these areas are close to a community. This study examines an alternative method for gathering ungauged river data for ice-jam flood hazard assessments, specifically the use of dendrogeomorphological methodologies. The most accurate way to gather this information is through collection of cross-sectional samples from trees that have been scarred by past ice-jam events, rather than the collection of core samples. Therefore, cross-sectional sampling methods were chosen for this study. The years and heights of past ice-jam events were then compared to instantaneous maximum water levels collected from a nearby river gauge to evaluate whether the dendrogeomorphological findings were accurate. Our results show that there is a direct correlation between gauged river data and dendrogeomorphological findings, with signs of ice-jamming events identified in the trees from the five highest years of instantaneous maximum water levels. Additionally, a correlation between the peak events in the two data sources was also revealed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".