A Bayesian spatially explicit estimation of daily egg production: application to anchovy in the Bay of Biscay
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Biomass estimates of fish resources by the daily egg production method (DEPM) are sensitive to the high variability of the daily egg production ( P0) and egg mortality (Z) in space. This work presents a Bayesian approach to estimate these parameters. A prior distribution of Z based on literature serves to overcome the biologically implausible Z estimates that can result from frequentist approaches. In addition to the classical estimation of a single P0 over the spawning area, the Bayesian framework allows also the modelling of egg densities in space, by including either spatial random effects, smoothing functions, or kriging like models, providing insights into the spatial variability of P0. The Bayesian approach was applied to the Bay of Biscay anchovy DEPM surveys. Results showed that this Bayesian approximation solved the implausible Z problem resulting in tighter credible intervals of both P0 and Z. Overall, spatial models outperformed the non-spatial model in terms of goodness of fit and resulted in slightly different total production estimates across models for each year, with a moderate decrease on uncertainty estimates.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".