Conditional forecasting of bus travel time and passenger occupancy with Bayesian Markov regime-switching vector autoregression
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Accurate forecasting of bus travel time and passenger occupancy with uncertainty is essential for both travelers and transit agencies/operators. However, existing approaches to forecasting bus travel time and passenger occupancy mainly rely on deterministic models, providing only point estimates. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian Markov regime-switching vector autoregressive model to jointly forecast both bus travel time and passenger occupancy with uncertainty. The proposed approach naturally captures the intricate interactions among adjacent buses and adapts to the multimodality and skewness of real-world bus travel time and passenger occupancy observations. We develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm to approximate the resultant joint posterior distribution of the parameter vector. With this framework, the estimation of downstream bus travel time and passenger occupancy is transformed into a multivariate time series forecasting problem conditional on partially observed outcomes. Experimental validation using real-world data demonstrates the superiority of our proposed model in terms of both predictive means and uncertainty quantification compared to the Bayesian Gaussian mixture model. • A Bayesian probabilistic model for jointly forecasting travel time and occupancy. • Interactions among adjacent bus runs are captured with a Markov regime-switching model. • Forecasting for downstream links is transformed into a multivariate time series forecasting conditional on partially observed data. • The model achieves superior performance in both point estimation and uncertainty quantification.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".