Future impacts of climate change on black spruce growth and mortality: review and challenges
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Black spruce ( Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) is the dominant conifer species across a large part of North American boreal forests, providing many goods and services essential to human activities, and playing a major climatic role through the global carbon cycle. However, a comprehensive synthesis of the effects of climate change on black spruce has not yet been undertaken. The dynamics of black spruce are influenced by various living (biotic) and non-living (abiotic) factors, as well as their combined effects, which are particularly responsive to changes in climate. Climate change predictions suggest that northern ecosystems will experience the world's most significant impact. Therefore, black spruce is likely to undergo profound disruptions in its growth and mortality rate in the next few decades, resulting in significant changes in forestry and carbon storage. However, these changes will not be uniform throughout the entire distribution of the species. Future changes in temperature and precipitation will create more stress for water availability in the boreal forests of western and central North America than in their eastern counterparts. Thus, significant longitudinal and latitudinal gradients in tree growth and mortality variability are expected throughout the range of the species. This literature review aims to summarise the impacts of climate change on individual tree growth and mortality of this major species. While enhanced black spruce productivity could occur through both increased air temperature and nitrogen mineralisation in the soil, moisture limitation in central and western North America will result in significant growth reduction and mortality events across these regions. Conversely, under the expected climate change scenarios, black spruce forests may be more resilient in eastern North America, where climatic conditions appear more suitable, particularly in their northernmost range. In this review, we identify current research gaps for some disturbances, which should be addressed to better understand the impact of climate change on black spruce. Finally, we identify issues associated with sustainable forest management and the maintenance of black spruce under projected future climate changes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".