Intolerance of uncertainty as a predictor of anxiety severity and trajectory during the COVID-19 pandemic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Efforts to identify risk and resilience factors for anxiety severity and course during the COVID-19 pandemic have focused primarily on demographic rather than psychological variables. Intolerance of uncertainty (IU), a transdiagnostic risk factor for anxiety, may be a particularly relevant vulnerability factor.Method: N = 641 adults with pre-pandemic anxiety reported their anxiety, intolerance of uncertainty, and other pandemic and mental health-related variables at least once and up to four times during the COVID-19 pandemic, with assessments beginning in Summer 2020 through Winter 2021. Analyses were preregistered on the Open Science Framework.Results: Higher intolerance of uncertainty at the first pandemic timepoint predicted more severe anxiety, but also a sharper decline in anxiety across timepoints. This finding was robust to the addition of pre-pandemic anxiety and demographic predictors as covariates. Younger age, lower self/parent education, and experience of COVID-19 illness at the first pandemic timepoint predicted more severe anxiety across timepoints, but did not predict anxiety trajectory.Conclusions: Differential levels of IU at the outset of the pandemic prospectively predicted more severe anxiety and a sharper decrease in anxiety over time. This finding was robust to the inclusion of covariates, including pre-pandemic anxiety and various demographic characteristics.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".