A Virtual Solar Wind Monitor at Mars With Uncertainty Quantification Using Gaussian Processes
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Single spacecraft missions do not measure the pristine solar wind continuously because of the spacecrafts' orbital trajectory. The infrequent spatiotemporal cadence of measurement fundamentally limits conclusions about solar wind‐magnetosphere coupling throughout the solar system. At Mars, such single spacecraft missions result in limitations for assessing the solar wind's role in causing lower altitude observations, such as auroral dynamics or atmospheric loss. In this work, we detail the development of a virtual solar wind monitor from the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) mission; a single spacecraft. This virtual solar wind monitor provides a continuous estimate of the solar wind upstream from Mars with uncertainties. We specifically employ Gaussian process regression to estimate the upstream solar wind and uncertainty estimations that scale with the data sparsity of our real observations. This proxy enables continuous solar wind estimation at Mars with representative uncertainties for the majority of the time since late 2014. We conclude by discussing suggested uses of this virtual solar wind monitor for statistical studies of the Mars space environment and heliosphere.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it