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Record W4391591814 · doi:10.1029/2024jh000155

A Virtual Solar Wind Monitor at Mars With Uncertainty Quantification Using Gaussian Processes

2024· preprint· en· W4391591814 on OpenAlexaff
Abigail Azari, Ellianna S. Abrahams, Facundo Sapienza, J. S. Halekas, John B. Biersteker, D. L. Mitchell, Fernando Pérez, M. Marquette, Matthew Rutala, C. F. Bowers, C. M. Jackman, Shannon Curry

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Geophysical Research Machine Learning and Computation · 2024
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldComputer Science
TopicGaussian Processes and Bayesian Inference
Canadian institutionsUniversity of British Columbia
FundersNASA HeadquartersNuclear Safety and Security CommissionIrish Research CouncilNational Science FoundationScience Foundation IrelandNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
KeywordsMars Exploration ProgramSolar windAstrobiologyEnvironmental scienceGaussianRemote sensingAerospace engineeringComputer scienceMeteorologyPhysicsGeologyEngineeringPlasma

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Single spacecraft missions do not measure the pristine solar wind continuously because of the spacecrafts' orbital trajectory. The infrequent spatiotemporal cadence of measurement fundamentally limits conclusions about solar wind‐magnetosphere coupling throughout the solar system. At Mars, such single spacecraft missions result in limitations for assessing the solar wind's role in causing lower altitude observations, such as auroral dynamics or atmospheric loss. In this work, we detail the development of a virtual solar wind monitor from the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) mission; a single spacecraft. This virtual solar wind monitor provides a continuous estimate of the solar wind upstream from Mars with uncertainties. We specifically employ Gaussian process regression to estimate the upstream solar wind and uncertainty estimations that scale with the data sparsity of our real observations. This proxy enables continuous solar wind estimation at Mars with representative uncertainties for the majority of the time since late 2014. We conclude by discussing suggested uses of this virtual solar wind monitor for statistical studies of the Mars space environment and heliosphere.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.006
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.003
Threshold uncertainty score0.009

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.006
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.045
GPT teacher head0.366
Teacher spread0.320 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations7
Published2024
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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