Subpopulations of children with multiple chronic health outcomes in relation to chemical exposures in the ECHO-PATHWAYS consortium
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A multimorbidity-focused approach may reflect common etiologic mechanisms and lead to better targeting of etiologic agents for broadly impactful public health interventions. Our aim was to identify clusters of chronic obesity-related, neurodevelopmental, and respiratory outcomes in children, and to examine associations between cluster membership and widely prevalent chemical exposures to demonstrate our epidemiologic approach. Early to middle childhood outcome data collected 2011-2022 for 1092 children were harmonized across the ECHO-PATHWAYS consortium of 3 prospective pregnancy cohorts in six U.S. cities. 15 outcomes included age 4-9 BMI, cognitive and behavioral assessment scores, speech problems, and learning disabilities, asthma, wheeze, and rhinitis. To form generalizable clusters across study sites, we performed k-means clustering on scaled residuals of each variable regressed on study site. Outcomes and demographic variables were summarized between resulting clusters. Logistic weighted quantile sum regressions with permutation test p-values associated odds of cluster membership with a mixture of 15 prenatal urinary phthalate metabolites in full-sample and sex-stratified models. Three clusters emerged, including a healthier Cluster 1 (n = 734) with low morbidity across outcomes; Cluster 2 (n = 192) with low IQ and higher levels of all outcomes, especially 0.4-1.8-standard deviation higher mean neurobehavioral outcomes; and Cluster 3 (n = 179) with the highest asthma (92 %), wheeze (53 %), and rhinitis (57 %) frequencies. We observed a significant positive, male-specific stratified association (odds ratio = 1.6; p = 0.01) between a phthalate mixture with high weights for MEP and MHPP and odds of membership in Cluster 3 versus Cluster 1. These results identified subpopulations of children with co-occurring elevated levels of BMI, neurodevelopmental, and respiratory outcomes that may reflect shared etiologic pathways. The observed association between phthalates and respiratory outcome cluster membership could inform policy efforts towards children with respiratory disease. Similar cluster-based epidemiology may identify environmental factors that impact multi-outcome prevalence and efficiently direct public policy efforts.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".