Randomized Confidence Bounds for Stochastic Partial Monitoring
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The partial monitoring (PM) framework provides a theoretical formulation of sequential learning problems with incomplete feedback. On each round, a learning agent plays an action while the environment simultaneously chooses an outcome. The agent then observes a feedback signal that is only partially informative about the (unobserved) outcome. The agent leverages the received feedback signals to select actions that minimize the (unobserved) cumulative loss. In contextual PM, the outcomes depend on some side information that is observable by the agent before selecting the action on each round. In this paper, we consider the contextual and non-contextual PM settings with stochastic outcomes. We introduce a new class of PM strategies based on the randomization of deterministic confidence bounds. We also extend regret guarantees to settings where existing stochastic strategies are not applicable. Our experiments show that the proposed RandCBP and RandCBPsidestar strategies have favorable performance against state-of-the-art baselines in multiple PM games. To advocate for the adoption of the PM framework, we design a use case on the real-world problem of monitoring the error rate of any deployed classification system.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it