MétaCan
Menu
← Back to cohort
Record W4391734892 · doi:10.1101/2024.02.07.579403

Waiting for the Perfect Vaccine

2024· preprint· en· W4391734892 on OpenAlexafffund
Gergely Röst, Zhen Wang, Seyed M. Moghadas

Bibliographic record

VenuebioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · 2024
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldMathematics
TopicCOVID-19 epidemiological studies
Canadian institutionsYork University
FundersNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of CanadaNemzeti Kutatási Fejlesztési és Innovációs Hivatal
KeywordsVaccinationVaccine efficacyOutbreakMedicinePopulationImmunologyEnvironmental healthVirology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Vaccination has proven to be the most effective public health measure in the fight against various infectious diseases. For emerging or re-emerging diseases, a highly efficacious vaccine may not be available at the start of an outbreak. Timelines for availability of a safe and effective vaccine may significantly affect disease dynamics, its burden, and the healthcare resource utilization. Mitigating this impact may then rely on low-efficacy vaccines that may be rapidly produced and distributed to at-risk populations at the early stages of an outbreak. With the expectation for arrival of a more effective vaccine at a later stage of the outbreak, the optimal vaccination coverage with the existing, low-efficacy vaccines is elusive. While flattening the outbreak if a significant proportion of the susceptible population is vaccinated with a low-efficacy vaccine, the overall infections may not be minimized if a small proportion of the population left unvaccinated when a highly efficacious vaccine becomes available. The optimal coverage for early vaccination could thus depend on several parameters including the efficacy of the currently available vaccines, arrival timing of a more effective vaccine and its efficacy, and the transmissbility of the disease. Here, we develop a deterministic system of differential equations to investigate the optimal vaccination coverage with a low-efficacy vaccine within the aforementioned parameter space. Despite simplifying assumptions, we illustrate that minimizing the overall infections does not necessarily correspond to the highest coverage of early vaccination. However, a high vaccination coverage, even with a low-efficacy vaccine, may still contribute to alleviating severe disease outcomes and reducing healthcare resource utilization.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.004
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Other · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.011
Threshold uncertainty score0.037

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.004
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0020.002
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0030.004
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0110.002

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.120
GPT teacher head0.349
Teacher spread0.229 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreOther

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2024
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same venuebioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)→Same topicCOVID-19 epidemiological studies→French-language works237,207→