Optimizing long-short-term memory models via metaheuristics for decomposition aided wind energy generation forecasting
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Power supply from renewable energy is an important part of modern power grids. Robust methods for predicting production are required to balance production and demand to avoid losses. This study proposed an approach that incorporates signal decomposition techniques with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks tuned via a modified metaheuristic algorithm used for wind power generation forecasting. LSTM networks perform notably well when addressing time-series prediction, and further hyperparameter tuning by a modified version of the reptile search algorithm (RSA) can help improve performance. The modified RSA was first evaluated against standard CEC2019 benchmark instances before being applied to the practical challenge. The proposed tuned LSTM model has been tested against two wind production datasets with hourly resolutions. The predictions were executed without and with decomposition for one, two, and three steps ahead. Simulation outcomes have been compared to LSTM networks tuned by other cutting-edge metaheuristics. It was observed that the introduced methodology notably exceed other contenders, as was later confirmed by the statistical analysis. Finally, this study also provides interpretations of the best-performing models on both observed datasets, accompanied by the analysis of the importance and impact each feature has on the predictions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".