Changepoint Detection in Heart Rate Variability Indices in Older Patients Without Cancer at End of Life Using Ballistocardiography Signals: Preliminary Retrospective Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: In an aging society such as Japan, where the number of older people continues to increase, providing in-hospital end-of-life care for all deaths, and end-of-life care outside of hospitals, such as at home or in nursing homes, will be difficult. In end-of-life care, monitoring patients is important to understand their condition and predict survival time; this information gives family members and caregivers time to prepare for the end of life. However, with no clear indicators, health care providers must subjectively decide if an older patient is in the end-of-life stage, considering factors such as condition changes and decreased food intake. This complicates decisions for family members, especially during home-based care. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this preliminary retrospective study was to determine whether and how changes in heart rate variability (HRV) indices estimated from ballistocardiography (BCG) occur before the date of death in terminally ill older patients, and ultimately to predict the date of death from the changepoint. METHODS: This retrospective pilot study assessed the medical records of 15 older patients admitted to a special nursing home between August 2019 and December 2021. Patient characteristics and time-domain HRV indices such as the average normal-to-normal (ANN) interval, SD of the normal-to-normal (SDNN) interval, and root mean square of successive differences (RMSSD) from at least 2 months before the date of death were collected. Overall trends of indices were examined by drawing a restricted cubic spline curve. A repeated measures ANOVA was performed to evaluate changes in the indices over the observation period. To explore more detailed changes in HRV, a piecewise regression analysis was conducted to estimate the changepoint of HRV indices. RESULTS: The 15 patients included 8 men and 7 women with a median age of 93 (IQR 91-96) years. The cubic spline curve showed a gradual decline of indices from approximately 30 days before the patients' deaths. The repeated measures ANOVA showed that when compared with 8 weeks before death, the ratio of the geometric mean of ANN (0.90, 95% CI 0.84-0.98; P=.005) and RMSSD (0.83, 95% CI 0.70-0.99; P=.03) began to decrease 3 weeks before death. The piecewise regression analysis estimated the changepoints for ANN, SDNN, and RMSSD at -34.5 (95% CI -42.5 to -26.5; P<.001), -33.0 (95% CI -40.9 to -25.1; P<.001), and -35.0 (95% CI -42.3 to -27.7; P<.001) days, respectively, before death. CONCLUSIONS: This preliminary study identified the changepoint of HRV indices before death in older patients at end of life. Although few data were examined, our findings indicated that HRV indices from BCG can be useful for monitoring and predicting survival time in older patients at end of life. The study and results suggest the potential for more objective and accurate prognostic tools in predicting end-of-life outcomes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".