Multi-Layer Perceptron-Based Classification with Application to Outlier Detection in Saudi Arabia Stock Returns
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We aim to detect outliers in the daily stock price indices from the Saudi Arabia stock exchange (Tadawul) with 2026 observations from October 2011 to December 2019 provided by the Saudi Authority for Statistics and the Saudi Central Bank. We apply the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) algorithm for detecting outliers in stock returns. We select the inflation rate (Inflation), oil price (Loil), and repo rate (Repo) as input variables to the MLP architecture. The performance of the MLP is evaluated using standard metrics for binary classification, namely the false positive rate (FP rate), false negative rate (FN rate), F-measure, Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), accuracy (ACC), and area under the ROC curve (AUC). The results demonstrate the efficiency and good performance of the MLP algorithm based on different criteria tests.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it