Predicting Passenger Flow Using Graph Neural Networks with Scheduled Sampling on Bus Networks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Predicting short-term passenger flows in bus networks is crucial to improving the overall performance of such systems and increasing their attractiveness. This study develops a graph neural network-based framework for multi-step passenger flow prediction specifically designed for bus networks to capture their unique characteristics. We propose the Multi-step Multi-component Graph Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (Multi-GCN-LSTM) model, which uses 1) a proximity matrix in addition to an adjacency matrix to consider the effects of vehicular traffic and link-level distances; 2) Scheduled Sampling for multi-step prediction, which prevents error propagation across prediction steps; and 3) a novel fusion mechanism for considering time-varying spatial and temporal correlations among passenger flow data based on recent, daily, and weekly travel patterns. This model is validated using real-world data collected from the Laval bus network. Also, benchmarking the established model against state-of-the-art baselines indicated its competency.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".