Metagenomic next-generation sequencing, instead of procalcitonin, could guide antibiotic usage in patients with febrile acute necrotizing pancreatitis: a multicenter, prospective cohort study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUNDS: The effectiveness of procalcitonin-based algorithms in guiding antibiotic usage for febrile acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP) remains controversial. Metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) has been applied to diagnose infectious diseases. The authors aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of blood mNGS in guiding antibiotic stewardship for febrile ANP. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The prospective multicenter clinical trial was conducted at seven hospitals in China. Blood samples were collected during fever (T ≥38.5°C) from ANP patients. The effectiveness of blood mNGS, procalcitonin, and blood culture in diagnosing pancreatic infection was evaluated and compared. Additionally, the real-world utilization of antibiotics and the potential mNGS-guided antimicrobial strategy in febrile ANP were also analyzed. RESULTS: From May 2023 to October 2023, a total of 78 patients with febrile ANP were enrolled and 30 patients (38.5%) were confirmed infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN). Compared with procalcitonin and blood culture, mNGS showed a significantly higher sensitivity rate (86.7% vs. 56.7% vs. 26.7%, P <0.001). Moreover, mNGS outperformed procalcitonin (89.5 vs. 61.4%, P <0.01) and blood culture (89.5 vs. 69.0%, P <0.01) in terms of negative predictive value. Blood mNGS exhibited the highest accuracy (85.7%) in diagnosing IPN and sterile pancreatic necrosis, significantly superior to both procalcitonin (65.7%) and blood culture (61.4%). In the multivariate analysis, positive blood mNGS (OR=60.2, P <0.001) and lower fibrinogen level (OR=2.0, P <0.05) were identified as independent predictors associated with IPN, whereas procalcitonin was not associated with IPN, but with increased mortality (Odds ratio=11.7, P =0.006). Overall, the rate of correct use of antibiotics in the cohort was only 18.6% (13/70) and would be improved to 81.4% (57/70) if adjusted according to the mNGS results. CONCLUSION: Blood mNGS represents important progress in the early diagnosis of IPN, with particular importance in guiding antibiotic usage for patients with febrile ANP.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".