The Impact of the Mechanism for Aligning Horizontal Fiscal Imbalances on the Stability of the Financial System
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The growth of state transfers to offset disparities in regional development affects the stability of the country’s financial system. This article delves into this outcome, empirically analyzing whether the transfer system for horizontal fiscal alignment leads to decreased financial system stability through increased borrowing at municipal and national levels. To test this hypothesis, we employ a quasi-experimental analysis strategy, examining potential scenarios of configuring transfers to Ukrainian municipalities for addressing horizontal fiscal imbalance. Across various transfer calculation scenarios involving changes in the calculation period, the number of budgets in consideration, and the alignment subject, we find that a suboptimal system of horizontal fiscal alignment, transferring funds from financially secure municipalities to insecure ones, leads to a rise in the public finance debt, subsequently decreasing financial system stability. Additionally, we discover that the current mechanism in Ukraine for horizontal fiscal alignment, designed to mitigate inequalities in socio-economic development among communities and regions, paradoxically exacerbates these disparities, artificially inflates indicators of decentralization reform success, and undermines public finance stability.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it