The impact of preferential market access: British imports into Canada, 1892–1903
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Canada initiated the formation of the (modern) imperial trade bloc in 1897 when it extended preferential market access to imports from Britain. British goods initially received a preferential reduction of one eighth of the applicable duty, rising to one quarter in 1898 and one third in 1900. Because duties varied across imported commodities, the uniform relative margins of preference resulted in cross‐commodity variation in the absolute margins of preference. This cross‐commodity variation is exploited in our paper. Relying on a data set that includes over 32,000 Canadian import products, we find that a 1 percentage‐point increase in the absolute margin of preference was associated with a 5.4% increase in the value of imports from Britain. Counterfactually, if Canada had not adopted a preferential trade policy, by 1903, the value of British imports into Canada would have been reduced by approximately one half.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".