Integrated Network Analysis of Symptom Clusters Across Monkeypox Epidemics From 1970 to 2023: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The worldwide spread of monkeypox (mpox) has witnessed a significant increase, particularly in nonendemic countries. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate the changing clinical symptoms associated with mpox from 1970 to 2023 and explore their interrelations. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, 3 electronic databases were searched for English peer-reviewed studies conducted from January 1970 to April 2023 that reported any symptoms among confirmed mpox cases. We categorized the mpox epidemics into 3 periods: 1970-2002 (period 1, within the African region), 2003-2021(period 2, epidemics outside Africa), and 2022-2023 (period 3, worldwide outbreak). Following PRISMA guidelines, a meta-analysis was performed to estimate the pooled prevalence for each symptom. The correlation among symptoms was analyzed and visualized using network analysis. RESULTS: The meta-analysis included 61 studies that reported 21 symptoms in 720 patients from period 1, 39 symptoms in 1756 patients from period 2, and 37 symptoms in 12,277 patients from period 3. The most common symptom among patients from all 3 periods was rash (period 1: 92.6%, 95% CI 78.2%-100%; period 2: 100%, 95% CI 99.9%-100%; and period 3: 94.8%, 95% CI 90.9%-98.8%), followed by lymphadenopathy (period 1: 59.8%, 95% CI 50.3%-69.2%; period 2: 74.1%, 95% CI 64.2%-84.1%; and period 3: 61.1%, 95% CI 54.2%-68.1%). Fever (99%, 95% CI 97%-100%), enlarged lymph nodes (80.5%, 95% CI 75.4%-85.0%), and headache (69.1%, 95% CI 4%-100%) were the main symptoms in period 1, with a significant decrease in period 3: 37.9%, 31.2%, and 28.7%, respectively. Chills/rigors (73.3%, 95% CI 60.9%-85.7%), fatigue (68.2%, 95% CI 51.6%-84.8%), and dysphagia/swallowing difficulty (61.2%, 95% CI 10.5%-100%) emerged as primary new symptoms in period 2 and decreased significantly in period 3. Most other symptoms remained unchanged or decreased in period 3 compared to the former 2 periods. Nausea/vomiting had the highest degree of correlation (with 13 symptoms) and was highly positively correlated with lymphadenopathy (r=0.908) and conjunctivitis (r=0.900) in period 2. In contrast, rash and headache were 2 symptoms with the highest degree of correlation (with 21 and 21 symptoms, respectively) in period 3 and were highly positively correlated with fever (r=0.918 and 0.789, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The manifestation of symptoms in patients with mpox has become more diverse, leading to an increase in their correlation. Although the prevalence of rash remains steady, other symptoms have decreased. It is necessary to surveil the evolving nature of mpox and the consequential changes in clinical characteristics. Epidemic countries may shift their focus on the potential association among symptoms and the high synergy risk. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO Registration: CRD42023403282; http://tinyurl.com/yruuas5n.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.017 | 0.043 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.019 | 0.061 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.012 | 0.011 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".