Heterogeneity in post-fire thermal responses across Pacific Northwest streams: A multi-site study
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Over the past century, water temperatures in many streams across the Pacific Northwest (PNW) have steadily risen, shrinking endangered salmonid habitats. The warming of PNW stream reaches can be further accelerated by wildfires burning forest stands that provide shade to streams. However, previous research on the effect of wildfires on stream water temperatures has focused on individual streams or burn events, limiting our understanding of the diversity in post-fire thermal responses across PNW streams. To bridge this knowledge gap, we assessed the impact of wildfires on daily summer water temperatures across 31 PNW stream sites, where 10-100% of their riparian area burned. To ensure robustness of our results, we employed multiple approaches to characterize and quantify fire effects on post-fire stream water temperature changes. Averaged across the 31 burned sites, wildfires corresponded to a 0.3 - 1°C increase in daily summer water temperatures over the subsequent three years. Nonetheless, post-fire summer thermal responses displayed extensive heterogeneity across burned sites where the likelihood and rate of a post-fire summer water temperature warming was higher for stream sites with greater proportion of their riparian area burned under high severity. Also, watershed features such as basin area, post-fire weather, bedrock permeability, pre-fire riparian forest cover, and winter snowpack depth were identified as strong predictors of the post-fire summer water temperature responses across burned sites. Our study offers a multi-site perspective on the effect of wildfires on summer stream temperatures in the PNW, providing insights that can inform freshwater management efforts beyond individual streams and basins.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it