Multi-ancestry polygenic risk scores using phylogenetic regularization
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Accurately predicting phenotype using genotype across diverse ancestry groups remains a significant challenge in human genetics. Many state-of-the-art polygenic risk score models are known to have difficulty generalizing to genetic ancestries that are not well represented in their training set. To address this issue, we present a novel machine learning method for fitting genetic effect sizes across multiple ancestry groups simultaneously, while leveraging prior knowledge of the evolutionary relationships among them. We introduce DendroPRS, a machine learning model where SNP effect sizes are allowed to evolve along the branches of the phylogenetic tree capturing the relationship among populations. DendroPRS outperforms existing approaches at two important genotype-to-phenotype prediction tasks: expression QTL analysis and polygenic risk scores. We also demonstrate that our method can be useful for multi-ancestry modelling, both by fitting population-specific effect sizes and by more accurately accounting for covariate effects across groups. We additionally find a subset of genes where there is strong evidence that an ancestry-specific approach improves eQTL modelling.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.018 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".