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Record W4392033611 · doi:10.32920/25266733.v1

Predicting U.S. Supreme Court Case Outcomes

2024· preprint· en· W4392033611 on OpenAlexaff
Ibrahim Mohamed

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicArtificial Intelligence in Law
Canadian institutionsToronto Metropolitan University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsSupreme courtComputer scienceOutcome (game theory)Affect (linguistics)Machine learningArtificial intelligenceTraining (meteorology)Training setOperations researchLawEngineeringEconomicsPolitical sciencePsychologyMicroeconomics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

<p>Traditional machine learning wisdom requires that we use as much business data as possible when training models. The patterns and insights obtained from that data can then be used to drive business decisions. Unfortunately, not every industry has the dataset or expertise to apply the latest and greatest techniques. This paper attempts to quantify the effect that a sound and specialized methodology can have on the performance of a modest model.</p> <p>This paper will examine several experiments performed to try and reduce the resources required, dataset size, data preparation, model complexity, and time to train. Once we’ve got a bare bones model, what affect might changing the data preparation or training strategy have on the overall performance? This paper explores 2 novel experiments/approaches to training/testing a model to predict the outcome of U.S. Supreme Court Case Decisions. This paper shows that by grouping cases by issue area, performance can be improved by an average of nearly 4%.</p>

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.596
Threshold uncertainty score0.999

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.103
GPT teacher head0.410
Teacher spread0.307 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.

Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2024
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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