Bibliographic record
Abstract
The traditional view that devaluation tends to increase domestic real income and output has been challenged in recent years on the grounds that trade flows, including factor imports, are relatively insensitive to exchange rate changes, especially in developing countries.This paper presents a simple macro-economic model in which devaluation influences real income and output both through the cost of imported inputs on the supply side of the economy and through exports, imports, and expenditures on the demand side.Statistical estimates of the structural parameters of the model for a group of ten industrial and developing countries are used to show that the demand effects dominate the cost effects in most cases, thus supporting the traditional view that devaluation has positive real effects in these countries in the short to medium run.Est-ce que la devaluation engendre la stagfiation?Le point de vue conventionnel veut que la devaluation tende a accroitre le niveau du revenu et de la production domestiques.C'est un point de vue qui a ete remis en question ces dernieres annees parce que, dit-on, !es flux de commerce international, y compris !es flux d'importation de facteurs de production, semblent relativement insensibles aux changements dans le taux de change.Ce memoire developpe un modele macro-economique simple dans lequel la devaluation influence le niveau de revenu et de production en termes reels via le coüt des facteurs de production importes du cöte de l' offre, et via !es exportations, !es importations et !es niveaux de depenses du cöte de la demande.Les auteurs utilisent la calibration statistique des parametres structurels du modele pour un groupe de dix pays industrialises et en voie de developpement pour montrer que !es effets du cöte de la demande dominent !es effets de coüts dans la plupart des cas.Voila qui supporte le point de vue traditionnel qui veut que la devaluation ait un impact positif reel dans !es pays devaluateurs a court et a moyen terme. INTRODUCTlONThe spectacular increase in the price of oil and other raw materials in the l 970s opened the eyes of economists and policy-makers to the importance of the aggregateWe are indebted to a number of colleagues at the IIES, especially Lars Calmfors, John Cuddington, Marian Radetzki, and Lars Svensson, for helpful comments on an earlier draft of the paper, and to Peter Sellin for assistance with the computations.We are also grateful to John Helliwell, Michael Parkin, and two anonymous referees for useful comments and suggestions.We alone are reponsible for any remaining errors .
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".