Quantifying alcohol‐attributable disability‐adjusted life years to others than the drinker in Aotearoa/New Zealand: A modelling study based on administrative data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Quantifying the health burden of alcohol has largely focused upon harm to drinkers, which is an underestimate. There is a growing literature on alcohol's harm to others (HTO), but it lacks the systematic transfer of HTO into a comparative risk assessment framework. This study calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD), interpersonal violence and traffic injury due to another's drinking. DESIGN: This study is a disease burden analysis, using modelling of DALYs for New Zealand in 2018. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The study took place among the Aotearoa/New Zealand population in 2018. MEASUREMENTS: The involvement of others' drinking was obtained from prevalence, alcohol-attributable fraction studies and administrative data. Disability weights (DW) for FASD were adapted from fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS) weights using a Beta-Pert probability distribution; for interpersonal injury, DWs used hospital events linked with injury compensation; for traffic injury, DWs used hospital events. Populations were stratified by ethnicity, age group and gender. A descriptive comparison was made with a previous estimate of DALYs for drinkers. FINDINGS: In 2018, 78 277 healthy life years were lost in Aotearoa/New Zealand due to alcohol's HTO. The main contributor (90.3%) was FASD, then traffic crashes (6.3%) and interpersonal violence (3.4%). The indigenous population, Māori, was impacted at a higher rate (DALYs among Māori were 25 per 1000 population; among non-Māori 15 per 1000 population). The burden of HTO was greater than that to drinkers (DALYs HTO = 78 277; DALYs drinkers = 60 174). CONCLUSIONS: Disability from fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD) appears to be a major contributor to alcohol's harm to others in Aotearoa/New Zealand. Taking FASD into account, the health burden of harm to others is larger than harm to the drinker in Aotearoa/New Zealand, and ethnicity differences show inequity in harm to others. Quantification of the burden of harm informs the value of implementing effective alcohol policies and should include the full range of harms.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".