Impacts of a prolonged marine heatwave and chronic local human disturbance on juvenile coral assemblages
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Coral reefs are threatened by climate change and chronic local human disturbances. Although some laboratory studies have investigated the effects of combined stressors, such as nutrient enrichment and heat stress, on growth and survival of early life stage corals, in situ studies remain limited. To assess the influence of multiple stressors on juvenile corals, we quantified densities of corals ≤5 cm at 18 forereef sites with different exposure levels to underlying chronic local human disturbance before, during, and after the 2015-2016 El Niño. This marine heatwave caused prolonged heat stress and devastating losses of coral cover at our study site, Kiritimati, in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean. In total, we enumerated 7732 juvenile corals from 13 different families. Over 80% of corals were from four families: 70% from Agariciidae, Merulinidae, or Poritidae, which all have stress-tolerant life history strategies, and 11% from Acroporidae which has a competitive life-history strategy. Both local disturbance and heat stress were significantly negatively related to juvenile coral densities. Prior to the heatwave, juvenile densities were on average 72% lower at the most disturbed sites (7.2 ± 1.9 m 2 ) compared to the least disturbed ones (15.3 ± 3.8 m 2 ). Overall, juvenile corals had a lower bleaching prevalence and lower mortality during the heatwave when compared to their adult counterparts. Still, the heatwave resulted in the loss of half (50%) of all juvenile corals, with competitive and weedy life history strategy corals undergoing greater declines than stress-tolerant ones. Although juvenile coral densities increased slightly in the year following the heatwave, the effect was statistically non-significant. Our results highlight the influence of local chronic anthropogenic and climate change-driven marine heatwaves on juvenile coral densities.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".