Machine learning prediction of future amyloid beta positivity in amyloid-negative individuals
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background The pathophysiology of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) involves $$\beta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mi>β</mml:mi> </mml:math> -amyloid (A $$\beta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mi>β</mml:mi> </mml:math> ) accumulation. Early identification of individuals with abnormal $$\beta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mi>β</mml:mi> </mml:math> -amyloid levels is crucial, but A $$\beta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mi>β</mml:mi> </mml:math> quantification with positron emission tomography (PET) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) is invasive and expensive. Methods We propose a machine learning framework using standard non-invasive (MRI, demographics, APOE, neuropsychology) measures to predict future A $$\beta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mi>β</mml:mi> </mml:math> -positivity in A $$\beta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mi>β</mml:mi> </mml:math> -negative individuals. We separately study A $$\beta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mi>β</mml:mi> </mml:math> -positivity defined by PET and CSF. Results Cross-validated AUC for 4-year A $$\beta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mi>β</mml:mi> </mml:math> conversion prediction was 0.78 for the CSF-based and 0.68 for the PET-based A $$\beta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mi>β</mml:mi> </mml:math> definitions. Although not trained for the clinical status-change prediction, the CSF-based model excelled in predicting future mild cognitive impairment (MCI)/dementia conversion in cognitively normal/MCI individuals (AUCs, respectively, 0.76 and 0.89 with a separate dataset). Conclusion Standard measures have potential in detecting future A $$\beta$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mi>β</mml:mi> </mml:math> -positivity and assessing conversion risk, even in cognitively normal individuals. The CSF-based definition led to better predictions than the PET-based definition.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".