The path to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine: Moscow’s framing of conflict and cooperation with the West under Putin’s rule
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This article explores the relationship between the evolution of Russia’s foreign policy narrative (RN) and the breakdown of its relations with the West. Even though the West is a rather fluid and nebulous concept, it is central to Russian foreign policy and primarily encompasses the EU and the United States (US), but also other countries like Canada, Japan or Australia that are framed by the RN as key supporters of US leadership in the world order. Relations between the West and Russia veered towards conflict and lack of engagement following the start of the Ukraine crisis, with various voices indicating that the world had stepped into a new Cold War. In this article, a curated collection of key interviews and op-eds from the Russian President was coded and examined for frame analysis for the period between the start of 2000 (when Vladimir Putin first became President) to the end of 2021. This study finds that the RN discursively constructs the context within which the Kremlin made the fateful decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".