Prediction of Permafrost Extent along the Hudson Bay Railway Corridor Using Freezing and Thawing Indices
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Freezing and thawing indices are practical for assessing and predicting climate change, energy balance, carbon exchange, surface and subsurface hydrology, moisture balance, and productivity. Using daily maximum and minimum temperature records as well as future projections for 2000–2100, freezing and thawing indices were calculated along the Hudson Bay Railway. We applied a linear regression method to analyze past trends in the freezing and thawing indices over time and project these trends over three representative concentrated pathways (RCPs). The results of this study show that the freezing index has decreased significantly since 2000 and is expected to continue to decrease in the future, while the thawing index shows an increasing trend. As altitude increases, freezing index decreases while thawing index increases. According to the results of calculating frost numbers, permafrost coverage in sporadic zones will decrease to less than 10% by 2100. In continuous permafrost regions, the permafrost is projected to become discontinuous by 2100.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".