Climate change signals of radiative forcing and feedback unveiled from long-term trends of spectrally resolved surface longwave radiation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Surface warming is directly associated with the surface energy balance, where downwelling longwave radiation is a critical factor influencing and reflecting surface temperature variations. Accurately identifying various forcing and feedback mechanisms is essential to making more realistic predictions about future climate change. Spectrally-resolved radiance measurements play an important role in this pursuit by leveraging the distinctive absorption features of atmospheric compositions. Only recently, the availability of comprehensive, long-term records of spectrally resolved radiation and atmospheric properties has enabled us to observe and quantify the forcing and feedback factors, such as the cloud feedback characterized by its high uncertainty.This study initiated by homogenizing the 23-year record of downwelling longwave radiance (DLR) observed by the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) at the Southern Great Plains site. A detailed DLR record for diverse sky conditions was obtained, enabling the determination of long-term trends in both clear-sky and all-sky scenarios. These trends reveal distinct spectral signals associated with various meteorological variables, forming the basis for further climate change signal attribution analysis.Subsequently, we develop and validate a novel spectral fingerprinting method tailored to constrain surface forcings and feedbacks from long-term DLR trends. Our analysis identifies positive CO2 and negative O3 surface forcings in both clear-sky and all-sky conditions. Moreover, we observe that changes in temperature and water vapor concentration over the 23-year period contribute to an increase in downwelling longwave radiation. Significantly, our study discovers a negative cloud feedback that offsets the increase in downwelling longwave radiation resulting from elevated CO2, water vapor, and atmospheric temperature. These attributions of radiation changes, derived from AERI observations using the fingerprinting method, are validated against the kernel method and compared with the simulations of Global Climate Models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".